Research Program
Three-Act Research Arc
Act I — Foundations: Establishing the Field
ERL 2015 · First-author · 602 citations
Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food System
Quantifies systemic risk from large-scale climate anomalies; trade structure amplifies rather than buffers shocks.
Nature 2017 · 1,044 citations
Groundwater Depletion Embedded in International Food Trade
Food trade routes unsustainable groundwater extraction from aquifer-stressed regions to importing nations.
Act II — Deepening: Measure, Predict & Validate
Science · In prep · First-author
AgRichter Scale
A generalizable envelope framework bounding hazard impacts from spatial extent alone. Analogous to the Richter scale; applicable across agriculture, infrastructure, and population systems.
Nature Food · In review · Co-corresponding
El Niño & Famine in Early Modern Europe
160 European famines and a new ENSO reconstruction: El Niño events drove 40%+ of famine onsets in Central Europe (1500–1800).
PNAS · In prep · First-author
Deliberation in Nuclear Evacuation (S1/S2)
Deliberation accelerates evacuation and experience matters; validated across Fukushima, Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island.
Act III — A New Theory of Crisis Behavior
PNAS · Submitting
Network Models Reveal Food & Water Vulnerability in African Migration
Food and water system fragility as primary migration drivers.
In prep · First-author
CHSH Violations as Fingerprints of Systemic Fragility
Quantum probability applied to commodity markets; Bell violation ratio 29× higher in crisis periods.
In prep
Quantum Decision-Making in Global Wheat Markets
Extends the nuclear evacuation framework into a quantum probability (S3) model for market behavior under systemic stress.
Publication Record
Top-Tier Venues
Nature
Dalin, Wada, Kastner & Puma (2017) · 1,044 citations
Nature Food
5 papers: 3 published · 2 in review · more in prep
Nature Communications
Cropland & climate oscillations (2018) · 146 citations
Nature Sustainability
2 papers: food crisis & refugees (2018) · resilience (2019)
PNAS
Nuclear conflict & food security (2020) · S1/S2 in prep
Comm. Earth & Environ.
Ukraine wheat prices (2024)
Global Environ. Change
Food vulnerability & migration (submitting)
Environ. Research Letters
Food fragility (2015, 602 citations) · multiple others
Leadership & Service
Leadership as Research Platform
CCSR Director
Leading 35+ staff at Columbia/NASA GISS; stabilizing and repositioning the center amid unprecedented federal funding uncertainty.
Food for Humanity Initiative
Took over and relaunched January 2026; seed funding from Rockefeller Foundation/GAIN and $100K Climate Science & Communications gift. Three pillars: Living Lab, Data & Innovation Hub, Food System Dynamics.
AGU Editor, Earth's Future
Shaping the field's leading interdisciplinary Earth science journal.
ICCS Main Track Convener
International Conference on Computational Science; bridges mathematics and computer science with physics, life sciences, engineering, and humanities.
DARPA Quantum Computing Panel
Unique opportunity to be at the forefront of climate applications for quantum computing and quantum probability theory.
AGU Fall 2026 (proposed)
Proposing first-ever Quantum Methods in Earth Systems session at AGU.
Teaching
Graduate Courses
Global Food Trade, Shocks & Migration
Examines the bidirectional dynamics among food trade network shocks, food security, and human displacement.
Water Governance
Governance of water resources across political, social, and economic dimensions; from water rights and equity to integrated management at local and international scales.